Is Gujarat still a trilateral battle
between BJP - AAP- Congress?

The majority of Opinion Polls and IndiaTV-Matrize Opinion poll aired on Monday (November 28) showed that Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is expected to create history by winning a 7th consecutive term in Gujarat Assembly. The 1st phase of campaigning for the ongoing Gujarat elections is over now, and Gujarat will cast their vote in 2 phases on the 1st and 5th of December, and the results will come on December 8.
IndiaTV-Matrize Opinion poll shows that the BJP will perform better than the 2017 tally. According to the opinion poll, the BJP may win a comfortable majority with 117 seats in the 182-member Gujarat assembly, while Congress may win 59 seats, AAP may win 4 seats, and Others may win 2 seats. The BJP won 99 seats, while the Congress 77 in 2017. As far as a voting percentage is concerned, BJP may get 49.9 percent, Congress 39.1 percent, AAP may get 7.5 percent, and Others may get 3.5 percent votes this time.
Though Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) Convenor and Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal said his party would win more than 92 seats out of 182 in the Gujarat assembly elections, is it political rhetoric, or are there depositions to validate the arguments? AAP sees Gujarat Election as a surprise win like Punjab, but Gujarat is much different than Punjab in many ways.

Notably, there are 3 major challenges to Congress, AAP, or any Political Party that is confronting or plans to confront the RSS-backed BJP:

  • Hindutva
  • Hyper Nationalism
  • Social Welfare Schemes with RSS-backed massive outreach
As far as Hindutva is concerned, no Political Parties across the Nation have come up with a solution to this challenge. Arvind Kejriwal himself and AAP have openly started portraying itself as a soft Hindutva Party, which may attract BJP's voters to an extent.
Hyper Nationalism has been a concern for all Political Parties, and none of the Parties could counter this high-scored narrative of the BJP so far.
Last but not least, the BJP on record has time to time, publicized its mammoth Cadre and its parent organization, RSS mass network, with its over a dozen sister organizations that work as full-time workers voluntarily for the BJP during elections across the country. No Party has even half of such massive cadre strength compared to the BJP, which is effectively used to mobilize people and take the RSS - BJP ideology to every part of India. Even the Grand Old - Congress Party, which is over a century-old Party, can not compete with BJP; instead, it seems to be at its all-time low now.